MOUZ have a dust2 problem and they can't hide it anymore. A 33% win rate across 12 maps on what should be a bread-and-butter pick is a genuine vulnerability, and Legacy know how to punish it. Legacy carry a 56% rate on the map and will absolutely target it in the veto.

MOUZ's recent run tells its own story. Losses to 9z and FUT in their last five don't inspire confidence for a team priced at an 82% implied win probability. Yes, they beat Astralis and HEROIC in the stretch before that, but the inconsistency is real. They also sit at 0% on nuke (small sample, but they clearly avoid it), further narrowing their comfortable map pool to mirage, inferno and overpass.

Legacy aren't world-beaters, but they don't need to be at this price. They need to steal dust2, hold firm on one of their stronger maps like mirage (78%) or ancient (64%), and they're through. The market is pricing MOUZ like they're a lock here, and they simply aren't one right now. At 3.80, Legacy only need to win about one in four for this to be profitable, and their map pool leverage pushes them above that threshold.