Identical 6-4 records tell you nothing until you look at who these teams have been playing. Falcons beat Vitality 2-1 and Spirit 2-0 in their recent run. FURIA's best recent scalp is Na'Vi 2-1, and they just got swept 0-2 by Vitality. The quality of competition isn't close.

The individual numbers reinforce this. Falcons carry a 1.26 team rating versus FURIA's 1.17, with better kills per round (0.80 vs 0.73) and significantly fewer deaths (0.58 vs 0.61). The map pool is where it gets interesting: FURIA lean heavily on Dust2 (71% win rate, 17 maps) but are thin elsewhere, with Ancient and Anubis barely played. Falcons have legitimate weapons across Mirage (67%), Nuke (100% in 4 maps), Ancient (57%) and Anubis (67%). In a Bo3 veto, Falcons have more places to steer this into comfortable territory. Their most recent H2H was a 2-1 Falcons win.

At 1.82 on Stake, the implied probability is around 55%. I think this is genuinely close to a 53-47 match in Falcons' favour, and the odds give you the higher-ranked team's opponent at a price that reflects something closer to a toss-up. Falcons are the world #5 playing a world #3 team, but their recent results against elite opposition are stronger, and the map pool dynamics favour them in a Bo3 format. Take Falcons.