Liquid are in freefall. A 3-7 record in their last 10, with losses to Sashi, M80, Alliance and OG alongside the expected defeats to Spirit and The MongolZ. This isn't a slump against elite opponents. They're losing to teams they should be competitive with. Their map pool is a disaster: not a single map above 55% win rate, and their most-played maps (Nuke at 38%, Ancient at 31%) are actively bad. There's nowhere for Liquid to hide in a Bo3 veto.

3DMAX have the H2H locked down at 4-1 against Liquid, and while their own recent form is mixed (4-6), the context matters. Their losses came to Falcons, The MongolZ and Astralis, three top-10 calibre teams. Their wins over MIBR, PARIVISION and B8 show they're solid against mid-tier opposition, which is exactly what Liquid represents right now. 3DMAX's Anubis (71%) and Nuke (62%) give them strong pick options, while Liquid have no reliable counter-pick.

At 1.81, the implied probability is around 55%. I'd put 3DMAX closer to 62% given the form disparity, the H2H record and the map pool mismatch. That's a meaningful edge on a match where the higher-ranked team is clearly the weaker one right now.