The odds here have this as a coinflip, and I think that's wrong. HEROIC Academy's player stats are meaningfully better across the board: 1.25 rating vs 1.13, 0.78 kills per round vs 0.70, 76.5% KAST vs 72.4%. That 83.5 average damage per round compared to Phantom's 74.4 is a big gap at any level. These aren't marginal differences.

Phantom's map pool is a problem. They sit at 29% on Dust2 across 17 maps, which is catastrophic for a staple map. HEROIC Academy meanwhile are 83% on Dust2 in 12 maps. That creates a veto nightmare for Phantom because they essentially have to ban it, which gives HEROIC Academy enormous control over map selection. HEROIC Academy also hold a 63% win rate on Ancient (19 maps) where Phantom manage just 43% (21 maps).

HEROIC Academy come in with solid recent form, picking up wins over GenOne, Imperial Academy and TNT while their losses came to competitive opponents in MANA and Hashiras. At 1.93 you're getting a team with better individual firepower and a clear map pool advantage priced as a slight underdog. That's value.