This is a BO5, and that changes everything about how you handicap this match. ARCRED carry strong win rates across virtually every map in the pool: 72% on Inferno (18 maps), 71% on Anubis (21 maps), 62% on Dust2 (26 maps) and 62% on Ancient. Metizport, by contrast, have a 42% win rate on Dust2, 45% on Mirage, 50% on Ancient and literally zero maps played on Anubis. In a BO3 you can sometimes hide a weak map pool, but across five maps Metizport will be forced onto uncomfortable territory.

The form backs this up. ARCRED's 7-3 run includes wins over MOUZ NXT and Nemiga, legitimate EU competition. Metizport's wins have come against Phantom, ex-RUBY and Basement Bobs, none of which move the needle. ARCRED also sit 14 ranks higher at #84 vs #98. The individual stats tell a similar story: ARCRED average 81.5 ADR compared to Metizport's 73.4, with a higher team rating (1.13 vs 1.09) and better multi-kill numbers.

At 1.78 on Thunderpick, the implied probability is around 56%. I have ARCRED closer to 63% in a format that punishes the team with less depth. The BO5 format is the key edge here. Take ARCRED.