FURIA just beat Natus Vincere 2-1 and have wins over NRG and HEROIC in recent weeks. MOUZ have been shakier, dropping series to 9z, FUT and PARIVISION. The ranking gap (#3 vs #8) tells part of the story, but the map pool tells the rest.

MOUZ have a 36% win rate on Dust2 and a 0% win rate on Nuke (0-3). Those are two of FURIA's strongest maps at 71% and 60% respectively. That's a massive veto advantage. MOUZ are essentially forced to ban two maps where FURIA thrive, which narrows their options significantly. MOUZ's strength lies on Mirage (82%) and Overpass (100%), but FURIA can comfortably ban Overpass and contest the remaining pool.

This is an IEM Rio qualifier, and FURIA playing for a spot at a Brazilian Major is about as motivated as it gets. The market has this as a coin flip at 1.97, implying roughly 51% for FURIA. I have them closer to 55%. That's a clean value spot on the world #3 at near plus-money odds.