The market has this as a coin flip leaning slightly toward G2, and on the surface that's defensible. Both teams are in strong form, both sit inside the top 12, and there's no H2H history to lean on. But the veto tells a different story.

Astralis will ban Dust2 and Mirage where they sit at 29% and 36% win rates. G2 will ban Nuke, a map they simply don't play. That strips the pool down to Inferno, Overpass and Ancient. On all three, Astralis hold the advantage: 85% on Ancient across 13 maps, 69% on Overpass across 16 maps and 67% on Inferno in 6. G2 counter with 80%, 62% and 50% on those same maps. In a Bo3, that structural veto edge matters. G2 don't have a single map where they can confidently steal a pick.

Form quality matters here too. Astralis have beaten Spirit 2-0, The MongolZ 2-0 and FURIA 2-1 in recent weeks. G2's best wins are BetBoom and GamerLegion, solid but a tier below. At 1.97 on Duel, the books are essentially saying this is 50/50. The map pool says it isn't. Astralis at just under 2.00 is a clean value spot.