The map pool alone makes Nemesis the right side in this CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 matchup. On Nuke, Nemesis win 85.7% across 14 team-form maps while TDK are 0-1 with a 0% win rate, a near-permaban for TDK. On Inferno, the gap is equally stark: Nemesis at 77.8% against TDK's catastrophic 20% (1W-4L). Those two surfaces effectively collapse TDK's viable veto options before the series even begins. Nemesis back this up with a 6-4 H2H lead and a direct 2-1 Bo3 win over TDK recently, the most comparable result you can draw on. Their broader form holds up too: 8W-2L in the last 10, four consecutive wins entering this match and a 70.1% match winrate over a 67-match sample. Player stats edge out TDK across the board as well, rating 1.20 vs TDK's numbers, ADR 85.6 and KAST 74.4% all coming out ahead. TDK's one genuine strength is Overpass at 88.9%, but Nemesis can ban it comfortably, leaving TDK exposed on Mirage (41.7%) and Inferno (20%). The sharp reference puts Nemesis at a 54.1% fair probability. Our estimate sits closer to 58%, driven by the map pool mismatch and the recent direct result, and that gap is exactly where the value lives. We're backing Nemesis at Duel at 1.80.