INFINITE are the underdog here, but the performance data points firmly in their direction. The 10-point ADR gap (86 vs 75.7) and the rating differential (1.20 vs 1.09) are the kind of structural edges that bleed into round wins over a full Bo3, and INFINITE's overall match win rate of 59.6% actually clears FOKUS's 54%, the favourite tag belongs on the wrong team. The veto story makes this even cleaner. FOKUS carry only a 33% win rate on Mirage in recent form, so they burn a ban there early. INFINITE will then lean into Inferno, where they are 5-1 (83%) in recent play, to open the series from a position of clear comfort. INFINITE will in turn avoid Nuke (their own 25% weakness), and the remaining pool exposes their Dust2 edge at 67%. Their 58.5% CT-side round win rate also means that wherever the maps land, INFINITE's defensive halves do real work against an opponent who will struggle to string together enough T-side momentum to compensate. The contrarian point the public is missing: the reference line here comes from only two soft books with no sharp market input, so the implied probability assigned to INFINITE sits well below what the objective numbers justify. That is a genuine price gap, not a narrative one. We like INFINITE as the underdog at Duel at 2.80.