Aurora is the right side here. the book has them as a near 43% chance and the market is offering something better than that. Aurora just swept G2 2-0 in this tournament, the same G2 who many are backing against Spirit. That result alone tells you Aurora are playing at a high level right now. Their last five is W,W,W,L,W with the loss coming against Spirit, the best team in the tournament. The map pool argument favours Aurora in a specific way. Aurora run 83% on Mirage (6 maps, 5-1) and 80% on Overpass (6 maps, 4-1 in form data). FURIA sits at 57.1% on Mirage and 75% on Overpass, so the gap closes on those maps but Aurora are stronger. Critically, Aurora have no Ancient data at this level and FURIA have played one map there. The veto will likely push this series to Dust2, Mirage and Anubis territory, where Aurora hold a structural edge on Mirage and neither team has a decisive Anubis sample. The thing the market is missing is that FURIA's 4-0 run in their last five includes BetBoom, 9z and B8. Aurora's run includes G2 and MongolZ. The quality of competition Aurora have beaten recently is higher. The H2H is essentially split (13-12 FURIA) over a very long sample, meaning this is close. The underdog price here reflects more pessimism about Aurora than their current form warrants.