MOUZ are the right side here. They come in at 7-3 over their last 10 with recent wins over Legacy, MIBR, B8 and paiN, while FURIA have gone 4-6 in the same window with losses to Vitality, Falcons and GamerLegion. FURIA's best wins in that stretch are B8, Gentle Mates and HEROIC, which is not a resume that inspires confidence at this level of a Major. The map pool gap is real: MOUZ win 100% of their Overpass maps across five played, 64% on Mirage and 60% on Ancient, giving them excellent veto leverage. FURIA's strongest map is Inferno at 83% but across only six maps, making it a target MOUZ can comfortably ban. MOUZ's 0.65 deaths per round versus FURIA's 0.61 is the one statistical advantage FURIA holds, but it evaporates when you look at MOUZ's round swing rating of 1.81 versus FURIA's 1.48. The contrarian read here is that recreational bettors see FURIA as a recognisable brand with SA flair and back them emotionally. The market at the book disagrees, pricing MOUZ as clear favourites. We agree with the sharp money.