Spirit are a freight train right now, 10 wins from 10 in their last 10 matches, a player rating of 1.50 that dwarfs G2's 1.19, and a 13-4 H2H lead all time. We are not arguing Spirit are the wrong favourite. We are arguing G2's price is slightly too long. Spirit's dominance in this data set relies heavily on Dust2 (87%) and Ancient (88%), two maps that are firmly in their comfort zone. G2 run Overpass at 80% across 10 maps and hold 69% on Ancient in their own records. In a Bo3 where G2 can pick Overpass and force Spirit onto a contested third map, they have a genuine route to the series even against the number-three team in the world. Spirit's Overpass record is only 40% across five maps. That is a real crack. The contrarian angle is this: recreational bettors see Spirit's 10-0 run and treat them as unbeatable. They just beat Aurora and NaVi in sequence at this Major. But G2 beat NaVi too, and beat Legacy, FUT and BIG in their recent run. The gap is real but the market has overcorrected on Spirit's hot streak. the book gives G2 27.7% and we think 30% is more honest. In a Bo3 with veto leverage, this is the right side to be on at this price. Slight lean on G2. Treat the position size accordingly given Spirit's genuine dominance.