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Our Prediction
FlyQuest@ 2.52
Match Analysis
FlyQuest win this if the map pool breaks even remotely in their direction, and there is every reason to think it will. Liquid's Dust2 win rate sits at 30% over 10 maps and their Ancient is 31% over 13, giving FlyQuest enormous veto leverage coming into this Bo3. FlyQuest's Anubis is 100% across 8 maps, and while Liquid's sample there is just one map, the contrast is stark enough to make Anubis a near-certain play from FlyQuest's side. The raw performance gap is the part the public is missing here. FlyQuest carries a 1.20 team rating against Liquid's 1.08, they die less often (0.65 deaths per round versus 0.71), they win individual duels at a higher clip and their multi-kill rating (1.23) buries Liquid's (1.12). Liquid's H2H advantage of 4-1 is real but this is a LAN Major, and that record doesn't hold water when one team clearly outperforms the other in the numbers that determine round outcomes. The casual money goes on Liquid because the ranking says Liquid. the book doesn't. the book effectively priced this as a near coin-flip, and FlyQuest is available at a longer price than the book's own fair line. At a Major with proper preparation and a map pool that cuts Liquid's knees off, we take FlyQuest at the value price.
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