paiN are the favourite according to the book and the best price on them is longer than that fair line. That combination doesn't come along often at a Major. We take it. The map pool case for paiN is real. On Nuke, paiN win 81% of the time across 16 maps, one of the strongest single-map records in this entire dataset. Monte sit at just 45% on Nuke across 11 maps. If Nuke gets played, this series is likely over before map three. Anubis is paiN's other weapon at 83% across six maps, while Monte are strong there too at 80%, so that battleground is more even, but it still anchors paiN's comfort zone. Monte's best map, Dust2 at 67%, is one paiN also handle competently at 56%. The public is looking at Monte's 22 ranking versus paiN at 19 and calling this a coin flip or slight paiN edge. the book agrees it's a slight paiN edge. The recreational market disagrees, offering a price that implies Monte are actually favoured. That's the mispricing. paiN's recent run of beating Astralis and FlyQuest 2-0 at this same event shows they arrived in form. Monte dropped their last three series against BetBoom, G2 and G2 again. The trajectory points one direction. Back paiN at the inflated price.