MongolZ win this on the strength of a decisive map pool mismatch and we take them despite the modest the book edge pointing the other way on Monte. The structural case for MongolZ is clear. They run 75% on Nuke across 8 maps and 75% on Inferno across 8 maps. Monte sit at 46% on Nuke across 13 maps and only 60% on Inferno across 5. In a Bo3 on LAN where each team controls their own pick, MongolZ can force Monte into maps where they win at a 29-percentage-point deficit. That is a legitimate structural edge that the book's 65% probability reflects correctly. MongolZ's 4-6 recent record looks soft but the losses came against NaVi, BetBoom, Aurora and Legacy, each a legitimate top-tier team. Their wins include beating Liquid and PARIVISION in the same stretch. Monte's recent form includes losses to Falcons, Aurora and BetBoom, teams they would be expected to push. Monte's only strong recent result is a 2-0 over paiN, which is a tier below this competition. The small Monte edge in the value object comes from a fractionally inflated book price on their side. But at a Major, on LAN, against a team with two dominant map picks in the veto, that small mathematical nudge is overwhelmed by the matchup reality. MongolZ at roughly 65% is fair. We back them.