Nemiga at 8-2 in their last ten is the best-performing team on today's Clutch Series slate and the market is not paying full respect to that run. They have beaten ex-RUBY, Walczaki and SPARTA in their last four without dropping a series, and those wins came against sides comfortably ranked inside the European mid-tier. TDK have a respectable 7-3 record but their two losses include fnatic and Sashi, sides a clear level above anyone Nemiga has faced, so the quality of opposition context cuts both ways here.

The map pool gap is where we make our money. Nemiga's Overpass win rate sits at 82% across 22 maps, one of the most reliable map stats in this tier. Their Ancient at 74% over 23 maps is just as clean. TDK counter with strong Overpass (77%, 26 maps) and Anubis (81%, 16 maps), but TDK have zero maps played on Nuke. If Nemiga can navigate the veto toward Nuke or Ancient, TDK are in serious trouble on at least one map in the series.

The public angle here is that TDK's overall record looks nearly as good as Nemiga's, which keeps the price from moving further. But Nemiga's consistency in BO3 formats, combined with deeper map pool data on their two strongest maps, gives them a structural edge that a raw W/L comparison obscures. Nemiga close this out.