AM at this price is a clear market error. the book prices AM at 65% to win, which is the sharp reference we trust. The soft books have AM at roughly a 34% implied probability. That is a 30-percentage-point gap between the sharp book and the recreational books, and we take the the book side every time that divergence exists. On the map side, AM's Overpass record of 92% across 12 maps is extraordinary, the strongest single-map record on the entire today's slate. CYBERSHOKE sit at just 29% on Overpass across 7 maps. If Overpass enters the veto, AM win it almost automatically. AM also win Mirage at 56% on 18 plays compared to CYBERSHOKE's 47% on 19, giving them an edge on the second most commonly played map. CYBERSHOKE's strongest map is Ancient at 83% on 18 plays, but AM's comfort on Overpass and Mirage gives them clear veto leverage. The contrarian angle is simple: the public money at the soft books has flipped this match on its head, likely because CYBERSHOKE are ranked slightly higher at 73 versus AM at 88. the book sees through that. AM have a head-to-head advantage (1-2 is not dominant, but CYBERSHOKE haven't proven consistent recently, losing 3 of their last 5). This is a lower-tier online match so we size accordingly, but the edge is real.