TDK beat Nemesis 3-2 in a Bo5 already in their recent results. That is not ancient history, it is the most direct data point we have for this matchup, and yet the market has Nemesis as a clear favourite. TDK's Overpass record is 15-1 across 16 maps, a 93.8% win rate that makes it the most dominant single-map record in this entire slate. Nemesis hold Overpass at 50% in just 2 maps, giving TDK total veto leverage. When TDK can pick Overpass and force the series onto maps where they have structural advantages, Nemesis's otherwise strong map record on Nuke (85.7%) becomes a tool they fight to get to rather than a guaranteed win. Nemesis's recent win streak is impressive but the quality of opponents is mixed. They beat INFINITE, CYBERSHOKE, FOKUS and Gentle Mates in their last five. TDK beat HOTU, 1win, INOX Division and Walczaki. Neither side is facing elite competition in this event tier. Where TDK holds the edge is in the head-to-head and in that Overpass record, which the bookmaker is not pricing in. Nemesis also have Inferno as a core strength (78% in 9 maps) and TDK go 0% there in 3 maps played, so the veto battle is real and complex. We back TDK as a slight underdog at the current price. The Bo5 result, the Overpass leverage and an overall 50-50 match that is being priced as a 54-46 Nemesis advantage makes this a clean value play.