FOKUS have beaten Phantom both times they've met, and the structural reasons for that are still very much in place. The Under 2.5 maps bet rests on a simple premise: FOKUS almost certainly pick Ancient first, win it, then take a second map they're equally comfortable on. Their Ancient record is 11W-2L (84.6%) in team form; Phantom's is 5W-6L (45.5%). That first map is essentially decided before it begins. Should the series move to Overpass, FOKUS maintain an 83.3% win rate there (5W-1L in team form) against Phantom's moderate 57%. The team-level stats echo the map-level edge: FOKUS's overall round win rate (0.532) beats Phantom's (0.515), their T-side is significantly stronger (0.508 vs 0.460), and individually they record more kills per round and fewer deaths per round. Phantom simply do not have the tools to drag FOKUS into uncomfortable territory. The overlooked detail is that Phantom's veto options are thin against this specific opponent. They'd need to avoid FOKUS's comfort picks while finding a map they can actually win, and the data shows they can't consistently do either. A 2-0 is the most likely path, not a best-case scenario, and the Under price at Thunderpick doesn't reflect that. We're taking it.