InControl are ranked higher and have the slightly better recent record at 6-4 versus Zomblers' 5-5. On paper, that justifies some favouritism. But the H2H tells a completely different story. Zomblers have beaten InControl 9 times in 14 meetings, and crucially, their most recent encounter was another Zomblers win at 2-1. That's not a fluke sample. That's a sustained pattern of matchup dominance.

Dig into the individual numbers and it gets more interesting. Zomblers carry a 1.15 rating to InControl's 1.12, with significantly better kills per round (0.79 vs 0.71) and a much lower death rate (0.63 vs 0.69). Their KAST sits nearly 3 points higher. These aren't numbers from a team that should be priced at 3.10. This is a LAN match at the Thunderpick World Championship, so both teams have real motivation, but Zomblers' map pool is narrower with weaknesses on Mirage (32% win rate) that InControl could exploit with their 65% Mirage record. That's the main risk.

Still, 3.10 implies Zomblers win about 32% of the time. Given the H2H dominance and the statistical edge in individual performance, I have them closer to 43%. That's a massive gap. The market is overweighting InControl's ranking and recent form against weaker opponents while ignoring how this specific matchup plays out.