Alliance are the play here, and the case starts with form rather than reputation. Over their last 10, Alliance sit at 8W-2L with wins over fnatic, Nexus and Ninjas in Pyjamas, while B8 have gone just 4W-6L in the same stretch, dropping games to FUT, The MongolZ and FURIA. That gap shows up in the numbers too: Alliance's 0.625 match winrate and 0.549 round winrate both sit clearly above B8's 0.532 and 0.507. This is a Bo1, so round-based form matters more than a head to head record from a different stretch of the season. The T-side split is where this gets interesting. Alliance are winning 52.1% of their T rounds against B8's 42.9%, a real edge on the side that so often decides tight maps. Layer in the map pool and it firms up further: Alliance have won 91% of their games on Inferno and 67% on Ancient, and both stay live through the veto in a single-map format. B8 do hold a 2-0 head to head, but those results predate the current form split, and leaning on an old head to head while ignoring the round data underneath it is exactly how the public gets this one wrong. B8's higher rank is doing a lot of the work in setting this price, but the underlying metrics tell a different story about who's actually playing better right now. That gap between perception and form is the contrarian angle worth backing. We like Alliance as the value side here, and Duel has the underdog price long enough to make the bet worthwhile.