UpcomingCCT Europe Series #4 2026 · Playoffs

TDK vs 100 Thieves

Sun, Jun 21, 01:00 PM

TDK

Bo3

100 Thieves

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Our prediction

100 Thieves

Odds: TDK 2.2 · 100 Thieves 1.7 (duel)

The H2H tells the story before a single map is played: 100 Thieves have beaten TDK every time these two have met, and the underlying data explains why that record is no fluke. TDK's headline numbers look tidy on paper, but their two standout maps, Overpass and Dust2, are exactly where 100 Thieves are most comfortable. 100 Thieves own a perfect record on Overpass and win nearly 77% on Dust2, meaning TDK's supposed strengths are either matched or vetoed away entirely. Meanwhile TDK's Inferno record is a disaster (1W-4L, 20%), and 100 Thieves' Inferno and Ancient form a sturdy mid-map spine that TDK simply cannot handle. The player-level gap reinforces what the maps already suggest. 100 Thieves carry a higher rating, better kills per round, fewer deaths per round and a round-swing figure more than double TDK's, pointing to a squad that performs when maps are close and clutch moments matter. TDK's win rate looks respectable until you examine who they built it against; losses to Walczaki and Nemesis are not the kind of resume that holds up here. 100 Thieves' recent wins over ex-RUBY, Betclic and Phantom represent meaningfully better opposition. The contrarian angle is that TDK's overall match win rate actually edges 100 Thieves', and casual observers may anchor to that number. Our data-driven estimate puts 100 Thieves' win probability at roughly 57%, yet the market prices them at closer to 46%. That gap is where the value lives. Take 100 Thieves at Duel at 1.70 and trust the head-to-head, the map pool and the individual numbers to line up the same way they always have.

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Odds comparison

Bookmaker	TDK	100 Thieves	Payout
Duel	2.20	1.70	95.9%
Thunderpick	2.10	1.65	92.4%

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