UpcomingIEM Cologne Major 2026 · Stage 3

Vitality vs MOUZ

Sat, Jun 13, 02:00 PM

Vitality

Bo3

MOUZ

Our prediction

MOUZ

Odds: Vitality 1.27 · MOUZ 4.2 (Duel)

This is the lowest-conviction pick on the card and we're calling it clearly: Vitality are the better team right now and likely win this. The only reason MOUZ are on the picks card is that their price carries genuine positive edge against the the book reference and there is a specific tactical angle that keeps the upset probability meaningful. MOUZ win Mirage at 64% across 11 maps and Overpass at 83% across 6. Vitality win Overpass at 88% but have zero Ancient maps played beyond one game, essentially removing an entire map from their pool. Vitality's dominant maps are Dust2 at 85% and Nuke at 80%, and MOUZ are merely 42% on Dust2 and 50% on Nuke. The veto likely produces a series on Mirage, a Vitality strength map and Nuke or Dust2, where Vitality are elite. MOUZ need to hold serve on Mirage and win the decider on Overpass to take the series. That is a narrow but real path. The contrarian case is simply that Vitality at rank 1 with a 1.37 team rating and 31 H2H wins versus MOUZ's 14 are correctly priced as heavy favourites. MOUZ just lost to FURIA and Falcons in recent outings. The public backing MOUZ here are mostly chasing the return rather than finding genuine value. We are flagging the mathematical edge but keeping conviction honest: this is a real long shot bet at a price the sharp market says is slightly too short on MOUZ's side. Size accordingly.

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